bb, we really have not diverged!
I noted several times in the last few months that this quarter would make the 6th quarter in a row that the EPS for the Big Boyz, 75 stocks that account for 50% of all the equity in this country, were going to be negative in comparison to the prior year. With most of the Big Boyz reporting, it wasn't even close with a median EPS this quarter of $ .30 compared to $ .40 last year.
Now, the next one is easy. The negative streak ends at 6. All the EPS has to do is go sideways to accomplish this objective. So, somewhere in the next couple of months is going to be a great buying opportunity. Further, we shouldn't have to deal with the massive write-off's of goodwill in the next quarter. I'm sure the FASB was trying to help when they changed that rule. Boy, did it back-fire!
I believe the folks looking for a low in June are just wrong. Being on the front lines of the Fed revenue collection efforts, it is going to come out in May how bad the deficit is going to be for this year. Clearly, the gold market is already understanding this issue. Inflation has nothing to do with the CRB, the CRB reacts to the government printing presses. Let the word go forth "to friend and foe" that the news is not going to be well-received.
That said, I'm fully positioned for this full moon, end of month, in front of the Fed, oversold bounce. Sure hope it happens!
Just a View from the Swamp
Berney |
