MEMO TO PRESIDENT George W. BUSH
AMERICA'S AXIS OF EVIL (UPDATED):
SREBRENICA - GROZNY - JENIN
Putin can rampage but Sharon can't?
Jackson Diehl The Washington Post
Tuesday, April 30, 2002
WASHINGTON Watching the rapidly escalating pressure on Israel from the safe distance of Moscow - the hostile UN investigators, the demands for an international conference, the talk of European sanctions - Vladimir Putin might afford himself a secret smile. Even as Ariel Sharon is pilloried for using a campaign against terrorism to assault Palestinian civilians and their self-government, Putin is quietly getting away with almost exactly the same crime. Ever since Sept. 11, Putin and Sharon have tried to convince the world that the Muslim national movements seeking to end the military occupations by Russia of Chechnya and by Israel of the West Bank and Gaza are indistinguishable from the terrorists of Osama bin Laden and deserve the same treatment.
Sharon's armored invasion of West Bank cities this month increasingly looks like a military and political disaster. Israel's killing of a few score (perhaps) fighters and civilians in the refugee camp of Jenin has attracted the outraged attention of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, not to mention sensational saturation coverage from the world's media. Yasser Arafat is far stronger both at home and abroad than he was before the operation, and Sharon's attempt to foreclose further negotiations with him seems doomed. Once strong relations with the Bush administration have been strained, and Israel's own intelligence chiefs are predicting that Palestinian militias and suicide bombers will bounce back quickly.
Putin's parallel campaign against what was once a secular and democratic Chechen independence movement, meanwhile, keeps getting politically easier. Although brutal and bloody military cleansings of villages also have been under way in Chechnya since the beginning of the year, they have been almost ignored both inside and outside of Russia. More than a thousand foreign journalists were in Israel last week, but at most only one or two in Chechnya.
The UN Human Rights Commission in Geneva voted down a resolution calling for a low-level investigation of Chechnya. Amid the talk of an international conference on the Mideast, Putin recently scrapped his token offer of negotiations with the Chechen rebel leadership. There was no reaction. Things are going so well that Putin felt able, for the second year in a row, to deliver a speech this month declaring the war in Chechnya over. "The military phase of the conflict may be considered closed," he declared. It was a lie, of course, just as it was last year. But Putin needn't worry. Annan has no intention of sending a delegation to Chechnya. Russia is doing everything in Chechnya that Sharon would do in the West Bank and Gaza, if only the world would let him. The secular and civilian Chechen leadership was long ago killed, exiled or driven underground, its administration destroyed, and a new pro-Kremlin leadership installed in its place. The republic is saturated with security forces, both Russian and loyal Chechen. Most of the civilian population has been driven out of the cities.
Israel has carried out one sweep in the Jenin camp during the past eight years. The Russians have conducted 33 such operations in the village of Tsotsan-Yurt since September 1999, and 20 in Starye Atagi, with far bloodier results. According to the Russian human rights group Memorial, some 2,000 Chechens have disappeared in Russian sweeps, at least 12,000 have been killed outright and thousands more have been tortured, robbed or raped.
Putin, however, is no closer than Sharon to winning his conflict. The Chechen resistance now has decentralized into small but potent fragments, spread across the republic. Even if Moscow struck a deal with the remains of the former leadership, it might be impossible to implement. The puppet government is unable to rule, as money for restoring services and resettling refugees disappears without a trace.
The war grinds brutally on, week after week, killing one to two Russian soldiers a day on average. With the world's acquiescence, it will likely go on that way for years - unless Russia gives up and unilaterally withdraws.
The world has checked the hand of Sharon while giving Putin a free pass. But it has not done Russia a favor. The Washington Post
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