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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group

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To: Bilow who wrote (27805)	4/30/2002 10:22:40 AM
From: TimF	of 281500

This is a proud and (in their eyes) used to "freedom" and self rule. They are not going to put up well with being under US occupation any better than the Palestinians have put up with Israeli occupation. Note that our troops in Afghanistan are there by invitation. Not by the Taliban's invitation. (and no I am not saying that Iraq would be like Afghanistan, just that we didn't enter the country at the behest of the power that controled most of it). I undersand and agree with your point that we have to look at worst cases, but I think you are saying or at least implying that the worst case or something near to that is a forgone conclusion. I agree with the idea that it could be a mess and I understand that the possibility of such a mess might be a good reason not to go forward, but I disagree with your apparent assumption that it will be such a mess. The mere possibility might be enough for me to entirely rule out the option if it wasn't for 1 - The liklyhood that if we do nothing that Saddam will get nukes, and 2 - The violations of cease fire agreement giving us justification for an attack. Even with those I am still undecided at this point. I don't think we will have an extended occupation except perhaps at the request of some new government. I don't think anyone in the current administration plans to or even seriously thinks about making Iraq in to a colony. I also don't think Saddam is any more popular then the Taliban was. I don't think most of Iraq feels that free, and the Shia's and the Kurds don't feel they have self rule. I understand that people can and have fought hard for an abusive dictator but I don't think most of the Iraqi army will be that motivated in this case. (Of course the Republican Guard may be a different story and its a lot more powerful then the Taliban's forces where). Human history is filled with examples of people who fought against invaders for decades. All that it takes is hope. I don't think that Iraq's army would have that level of hope and determination. Tim

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