Mark, our thoughts are not that far apart. I find that many goldbugs tend to look to Economic Indicators to inform them of golds next move. They watch the levels of Comex warehouse levels, Professional commercial gold traders commitments vs commitments by speculators, Correlations between the commodity indices and the price of gold, Future inflationary guages, Worldwide interest rate policies, Insider stock transaction activity with the gold producers, XAU vs Spot Gold Price, Behaviour of other precious metals; eg Platinum, Paladium and silver, Price/Volume Statistics re gold trades, XAU "Magic Multiple Five", Page access to various gold sites or request for gold info, Special Political considerations, Golds trading range (tight or lose), supply coming on stream, to name a few.
Makes you dizzy doesn't it.
Then we have to take into account the economic implications of a money glut in the economy worldwide, consumption frenzie by consumers that has been going on for years and the personal and government debts outstanding worldwide. As well, all the forward selling that has taken place and the fact this gold will have to be mined just to fulfill the obligations for the dollars already received. And all the precious Metal Loans (particularily gold) where the true owners have lent there hard metal and now this metal has already been consumed and will somehow have to be repaid (could have a sort of run on the bank syndrome here). Actually I don't think there is enough metal above ground to cover this scenario.
Personally I know there is a world out there that trades in billions of dollars of gold bullion and other forms on a daily basis. Little about this world of people and transactions is known by John Q Public.
The London fix is still happening twice a day and this merry little band of gentlemen decide our fate. Or do they?? Or are they merely going thru the motions for the prestige of it all, on behalf of those that are really calling the shots from behind the scenes.
Are the economic statistics that the common folks are being fed, being manipulated? You bet! Is debt (personal and public)at absurb levels? Of course! Two years ago Japan held 7% of US public debt, today it is 33%. What if Japan cut of the inflow of cash?? Can the gold obligations be currently repaid on the spot without gold hitting the roof? Not a chance! Etc. Etc.
What does all this garble mean??
NOTE that gold is a "Political" metal. He who controls the gold sets the rules. Don't be fooled with who appears to be the owner of the gold with the CB sell-offs etc. Ask who "controls that gold or the right to that gold. Ask who will play that gold as the trump card when the timing is right.
All of those other common things that are bantied around that supposedly will effect gold prices are somewhat of a facade. When "they" want the price of gold to move up, It Will !! When the timing is correct, those little gentlemen in London will start to wind it up and up.
Now, just what do we do? Get into the juniors, as their potential for new gold in the ground combined with the market's multiples, will drive their stock prices through the roof.
Enough for now.
Respectfully, Pat O'Brien |
