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Technology Stocks : Full Disclosure Trading
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (375)4/30/2002 5:33:09 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) of 13403
 
Hi RtS,

Semi's historically have had excellent May-July in 1997 and and in 1999.

I think we have a time period where earnings will be of question with a negative bias getting strongest in the pre-announcement time period for Q2 (should roll in June 10 thru July 10).

Then a stronger series of sequential growth stories will be reported for Q2.As those with strongest growth stories get in the black - the next achievemnet will be building (growing) backlogs.This will result in EPS upward revisions and multiple expansions for those who will get margin expansion or market share as a biproduct of their ongoing R&D programs.

I've lightened up (back from a very aggressive Positive earnings play position). I like the stocks I own, but IF there is a dip and value play to make - I've got to have some Purchasing Power to take advantage of the discounts.

My cash reserves are held only for a meltdown - like if we test September 01 lows.Heck Orcl and Jdsu are already very much below sept lows.With Vix kicking up its heels - this is a possibility.Vix spikes don't just happen they have subtle spikes before the real ugly one occurs and that may be what we're seeing.We also have the end of month window dressing off the market.That can help as well.

Telecom, fiber optic components/networks are really crushed.The last cycle for final rolling capitulation.

So watching Amat and Csco next month will be good clues.Then Orcl will come in and I hope to see a more robust Q2.

FWIW

Bob
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