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Gold/Mining/Energy : Bema(Bgo) and Arizona Star
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To: Elizabeth Andrews who wrote (10335)4/30/2002 11:37:39 PM
From: bill  Read Replies (1) of 10482
 
Elizabeth,
Don't bait Elmer. It won't lead to a useful discussion
on political risk. If possible, I'd like to have that
discussion because it is one I've not seen elsewhere.
The strange thing about political risk is that often there
is little of it in dealing with totalitarian states. With
them there is a one-time risk that occurs when then
person in power is deposed, dies, etc. The Shah of Iran,
for instance or Amin or....you get the idea. With that
kind of power, they can make a deal and enforce it. When
they die or are deposed, the risk is that having made a
deal, the company will now be identified with the past
dictator and will be the enemy. There is more political
risk when a system crumbles--Jugoslavia, the USSR--and
control from the centre is lost. With no effective central
govt. you get versions of Afghanastan, better or worse.
The other risk is a political situation where there is so
much corruption that no deal is safe--if BreX hadn't been
a scam, it would still have been stolen.

There is a group that lists countries by corruption and
issue a list once a year. What about political risk? Are
there countries where the threadsters wouldn't invest?
Are there countries where you'd invest but only with your
finger on the trigger? If Kinross said they were going to
mine gold in China would you jump out? In Indonesia? North Korea? Iraq? Iran?
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