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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: J.T. who wrote (11885)4/30/2002 11:56:37 PM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (6) of 19219
 
Rydex Total Assets Update for Tuesday, April 30th, 2002:

***************

Money Market        1.499  BILLION**BULLISH Overbought 
  
***************

Regular Series: (100% Correlation to Index (Nova 150%))

SPX Long - NOVA     255.6  Million**BULLISH  
SPX Short- URSA     252.4  Million**BULLISH 
NDX Long - OTC      696.2  Million**BULLISH Double Oversold
NDX Short- ARKTOS   129.1  Million**BULLISH  

**************

Dynamic Series: (200% correlation to Index)

SPX Long - TITAN    138.0  Million**BULLISH 
SPX Short- TEMPEST  153.0  Million**BULLISH 
NDX Long - VELOCITY 199.3  Million       
NDX Short- VENTURE  184.7  Million**BULLISH 
************* 

Sector Funds:  
               
XAU Precious Metals  76.9  Million**BEARISH 
XOI Energy           43.7  Million  
OSX Energy Services  80.1  Million**BEARISH 
BKX Banking          94.9  Million**BEARISH    
BTK Biotech         197.5  Million**BULLISH Triple Oversold 
Near 3 1/2 Year Low   
RUT 2000 - MIKROS   150.4  Million  
RLX Retail           33.8  Million**BULLISH Oversold
Telecommunications    5.9  Million**BULLISH Oversold

*******************************************

The fact that BKX TA doubled tonight is a negative mark for the Bulls short term. I have seen where money piles in hard to these sector funds and then gets taken out within a few trading days. Nevertheless, obviously a very big bet was made in the bank sector, don't know if it was black box related, but it makes me extremely uneasy. BKX 871 held today as it closed BKX 874.85. I would like BKX to close above BKX 871 tomorrow but I don't like the chances after seeing the spike in BKX TA. We will find out if this spike is a one day (or a few days)aberration or if something else is brewing.

I am quite pleased NDX OTC TA stayed below 700 Mil. OTC seems to have a better rydex sentiment reaction ebb and flow to it than Velocity - at least from my perspective.

For the market to do my bidding for me tomorrow, I would actually like to see a sloppy bifurcated market, one index up the other two down (or vice versa (DOW, SPX, COMP) which will hopefully create more seeds of doubt to any meaningful or sustainable continued market rally. This would, in turn, get TA levels more skeptical on the slope of hope in short order again. And if by some chance BKX can close above BKX 871 with BKX TA coming right back down I would be tickled pink. Of course, the market rarely does my bidding and asking for all these things to pass is like asking pigs to fly.

Manyana.



Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC
Dynamic Series: 100% SPX Long TITAN

Best Regards, J.T.
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