Re: Pete - You had 2 chances to supply the data and you just change the subject
After I posted the best available info on the two company's capacity's, you put me on ignore rather than face the truth:
AMD has the following facilities:
Austin, Texas
Fab 25 0.18 120,000 being converted to flash
Aizu-Wakamatsu, Japan
FASL JV1/(1) 0.35 70,000
FASL JV2/(1 0.25 & 0.35 91,000
FASL JV3/(1) 0.17 118,000 first shipments Q4 of 2001
Dresden, Germany
Fab 30 0.18 -> .13 115,100 ramping up
Research and development at Submicron Development Center, a 42,000 square foot facility located in Sunnyvale, California
Intel has the following facilities:
D1BR - 200,000 sq. ft. (once development, now production)
D1C - 135,000 sq. ft. [.13 -> .10]
D1D - 175,000 sq. ft. [development]
D2 - 36,000 sq. ft. in 1991 [.18/.13] flash
RP1 - 56,000 sq. ft. [development]
FAB1-7 - 435,000 sq. ft. closing next year [.35] flash [edit: 435,000 Rio Rancho+ clean room total includes sq. ft. from old 1-7,9, and the new 11]
FAB8 - ? [.35 and above]
FAB9 - 120,000 flash [upgraded in 2000, still open]
FAB10 - 100,000 sq. ft.? [.25/.18]
FAB11 - 120,000 sq. ft.? [.18 -> .13] flash
FAB11x - 135,000 sq. ft. [.13]
FAB12 - 135,000 sq. ft. [.18]
FAB14 - 90,000 sq. ft. [.25/.18]
FAB15 - 120,000? [.35/25] -> [.18/.13] flash
FAB16 - On Hold
FAB17 - 95,000 sq. ft. [.13]
FAB18 - 80,000 sq. ft. [.18]
FAB20 - 120,000? [.13]
FAB23 - 120,000 sq. ft. [.18] flash
FAB22 - 133,000 sq. ft. [.13]
FAB24 - 135,000 sq. ft. - under construction
FASL (AMD + Fujitsu) produces and sells about the same amount of flash as Intel. Both Intel and AMD have been gaining share in flash as (just like in CPUs) the furious competition between these two leaves every other company behind.
AMD/Fujitsu has been supplying about a quarter of the flash market from 161K sq.ft. AMD/Fujitsu will have an additional 238K sq. ft. for expanding their flash share around the end of the year (JV3 and Austin)
Intel has been supplying about a quarter of the flash market from 276K sq. ft. Intel will be adding 240K sq. ft. of flash capacity around the end of the year to expand their share.
It looks like these two companies are going to be making life very difficult for the other flash manufacturers.
AMD has been supplying about 20% of the CPU market from 115K sq. ft. at Dresden and whatever part of Austin that isn't already tied up in the flash conversion (60K?) - about 175K of fab space. AMD expects to be able to supply 25% to 30% of the CPU market from 115K sq. ft. (plus 20% more from UMCs foundry) after they complete the move to .13.
Intel is running 1123K sq. ft. of .13 and .18 fab space to supply 80% of the CPU market. They've just announced that they need to build more FABs (the Ireland FAB) - even though Intel's ongoing (expensive) 12" wafer conversion of 5 plants should be giving them double the production AMD gets at their 8 inch wafer plants.
I didn't include either company's development FABs in the total, (AMD 42K Intel 231K - some of Intel's still under construction) though we all suspect that production parts are sometimes made by both companies at those fabs.
Intel's capital expenses in 2000-2001 were $14.3 Billion, AMD's capital expenses in 2000-2001 were $1.6 Billion - and that includes FASL capex.
Intel and AMD have a 5/3 relative share of the flash market and a 4 to 1 share of the CPU market. Intel has 9 times the capital costs of AMD. Neither company makes significant money anywhere else. Intel has chipsets FABed by TSMC and buys network chips as well. I didn't include Intels .25 and .35 FAB capacity in either total because it's used to make commodity network chips and chipsets, only the CPU grade FAB space and the FABs designated as flash were counted.
The totals, 161K AMD flash vs. 276K Intel flash and 175K AMD vs. 1123 Intel CPU space are rough totals (Intel is very secretive about its production facilities). I left out 2 Intel FABs being converted to Flash and 1/2 of an AMD plant being converted to Flash. It's easy to see why Intel is so secretive - the fact that their costs are so uncompetitively high would tend to attract competitors if it were more clearly known.
But rough or not, those numbers are in the ball park.
Right now, Intel is still able to command 80% of the CPU market despite its prices being about 75% higher for parts that are the functional equivalents of parts offered by their competition. If buyers decide they don't need to spend an extra $200 to get something faster than a 2000 or 2100 chip, Intel is in a lot of trouble. AMD has built in a cost structure that assumes that change in the market.
We'll see who's right. |
