VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: stockman_scott who wrote (50775)	5/1/2002 11:09:38 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) of 65232

Econ Global makes no mention of MZM growth, nor household debt and certainly not a peep about the USdollar impressive rebound, maybe but so are most bear bounces they missed on three critical items money supply, debts, currency risk heard a sharp lady on CNBC talk about interest rates she said something like: "the only way interest rates will rise is if the economy recovers strongly" this is the consensus view, but I think incorrect if the dollar slides further, then bonds will be sold they are sold by foreigners to finance the currency sales and rates will rise, regardless of the US economy sure, much of $assets are sold as stocks but the piggyback effect is for stocks to encourage more dollar sales and the USTBond market is 5x larger than the US Stock Market this is the opposite perverse argument if foreigners see the US economy as not recovering, they might sell dollars (which would raise our rates) we have a big big risk with foreigners holding our debts WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY IN CONTROL / jim

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