Hi: I have follow ABTI for about 6 month. I was tempted to go in several times, but find other opurtunities for short and long term. I follow this tread only recently, I will try to read all entries, only know about last 25.
I consider their glucan molecule some type of vaccine, it is a very neat and interesting approach base on inmunology (tough field).
I follow many biotechs, and for technicals use the TC-2000 charts. I will rarely invest in companies that do not have proven type III studies at least, better if FDA approved, much better if already making money(AMGN) that is my approach. I will not get 1000% but 30, 50, 60% is fine with me
My Caveat: ABTI charts are showing a very strong distribution pattern (I call this hemorrhagic trickle down), going into the type III study August announcement I think is at best a simple case of profit taking, or terrible warning and key people know something (bad results coming), or a case of manipulation to accumulate under the shadow getting small investors scare so they can pick it up cheaper.
Recently I saw this in AIMM, and on CNSI pending bad results in studies ( I admit I saw it in hindsight )and ABTI looks just like those charts.
ALLP had a less strong but similar pattern (this one I pick before the bomb, but got confuse with the overall down market in april.), anyway the results were bad, people loss money (at least 50%) on this stock, but I think company is still viable, but I am waiting on this one.
REGN, no signs at all of this before the drop, but this is a very solid company and the news were not so bad (the losses were)
Lipo, this was a case of probably a blatantly hype fraud, and their were no signs like this.
VVUS, was by someone and who knows who, clearly manipulated with a bad news release ( an old news that was recycled regarding an FDA inspection in the past ), but very succesful in the short term it drop the price from 27 to 19, now back around 30. Very strange this happens one week before very good earnings report.
Caution: if you do not know a lot about this glucan technology, and do not has access for more information than the one in this thread, I will suggest, do not increase your position, and wait for good news, it will pay better as far as I can see. If you have profits, get out now. If you could not tolerate a 50 to 80% loss get out now. If the money in it is pure speculation and hopefully no more than 5% of your investment then maybe you could consider just staying in. But I do not see anything to suggest to increase in your position.
I like this thread, and will follow it, See you around. |
