Zeev with all due respect I believe you called for a late June BOTTOM. Now perhaps I am wrong on that and if so apologies go out to the turnips.
If I am correct, then I am not reading challenged, but if I am wrong then obviously I am.
BUT June Expiry is June 22.
If the bottom is in June, and that bottom is to occur AFTER expiry then we have one HELL of a crash from June 24-28. I sincerely doubt we hold max pain in June then crash and bottom in a single week.
Now if you are assuming that max pain will drift down in June (yes it could) but nearly 90% unlikely(IMO) for it to drift down enough given the hundreds and hundreds of thousands of June QQQ puts building up at some fairly high strike prices, for Max pain to hold in June and THE LOCAL BOTTOM TO BE IN JUNE, AFTER EXPIRY.
That said, anything is possible, but unless I am reading challenged, and perhaps I am, I do not see this happening.
Does the bottom happen Late JUNE AFTER expiry, in June, or can it linger well into July? If the latter, then that seems plausible. Of course what seems plausible to me (or you or anyone for that matter) does not "make it so".
But I am not sure I am reading challenged on a late JUNE (with late never defined) but now seems evem more difficult if Late means precicely JUNE BOTTOM AFTER EXPIRY.
FWIW: I am very comfortable with a June bottom.
I am also very comfortable with major tankage AFTER June Expiry, continuing into July. I am very UNCOMFORTABLE (but that is my call not yours and I realize that), with a JUNE bottom AFTER expiry, given the way options expirys have gone. Anything is possible and your forecast is your forecast and mine is mine and that is what makes a market so to speak, but tell me whether or not I am reading challenged and if so, how.
Again apologies if I am.
M |
