| Russia wants to be a Great Power, and is still the dominant power within its former sphere. The Baltic States have large numbers of Russian ethnics within their borders, as do Kazakhstan and other Asian republics, and Ukraine and Belarus are ambivalent in the relations with the Great Russians. Russia is the major source of oil and gas in the region, and is deeply involved in the Caspian venture. There is still lots of potential for mischief unless Russia is allowed a place at the table among the Great Powers, which, at this point, means inclusion in NATO, as the pre-eminent military alliance in history. Otherwise, they are the presumed target of NATO, and still marginal. Since I do not fear European Union any time soon, because I consider it poorly planned and ill- timed, I cannot see any plausible scenario that threatens the United States in the intermediate term. Europe still is too incapable, frankly, or they would not have turned to us to solve the Yugoslavian problem, and that is likely to continue. In fact, including Russia, and, presumably, increasing elements of the CIS, would only increase the Babel Factor in European councils, and render the dream of a governable Europe more elusive....... |
