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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Joseph G. who wrote (20414)7/10/1997 11:59:00 PM
From: Stratajema   of 132070
 
MB, Joseph G, & fellow Tulip fans. I know you'll enjoy the quote below. I'll be increasing my stock positions as a percentage of my portfolio by 10% over the next few trading days bringing my total stock exposure to a lame 20%. (Yes, really!)

"Assessment of the Future

If people think that tulips will appreciate at 10% per month, they can be motivated to act so that this will happen. Happen for how long? As far as theory can tell, forever. Even though every tulip mania and stock market bubble has come to an end in history...I have long been struck by the fact, and puzzled by it too, that in all the arsenal of economic theory we have absolutely no way of predicting how long such a (bubble) will last. To say that prices will fall back to earth after they reach ridiculous heights represents a safe but empty prediction. Why do some manias end when prices have become ridiculous by 10 percent, while others persist until they are ridiculous to the tune of hundreds of percent?"

Paul A. Samuelson
Intertemporal Price Equilibrium: A Prologue to the Theory of Speculation, 1957
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