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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED
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To: Clappy who wrote (50844)5/2/2002 12:39:03 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 65232
 
gold broke the downchannel completely this spring
utterly smashed it
the initial move to 300 broke the downtrend
since then a clear upchannel has formed
with about 4-5 clear points defining upper/lower boundaries

this is a reversal in my view
supported by fundamentals of supply & demand
the corrupt leasing covers the shortfall

as for the dollar, fundamentals simply dont support another move to test the top
it is breaking down
the widening trade deficit refutes his claim
the zero real interest rate doubly refutes it
they aint no money to be made in USTBonds now
with rising rates, bond holders will be losing big money

the funniest effect I find now is the chain reaction staring at GreenSnot

RAISE SHORTERM RATES ==> HURT CORP EARNINGS (from swaps)
==> HURT STOCK MARKET (from earnings and valuations)
==> HURT USDOLLAR ==> IMPORTED INFLATION (from trade debt)

GreenSmudgey is locked in a box, and the world knows it
that is pushing gold as much as world tension
THE ONLY WAY OUT FOR GREENSHEISS IS TO FEED INFLATION

if he does nothing, then artificial low rates encourage continued irresponsible huge money supply growth
if he raises rates, he does damage to the dollar
either way, you get inflation
one from the front door, the other from the back door

I favor her back door
/ jim
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