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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 148.32-3.3%3:59 PM EST
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To: Dale Knipschield who wrote (10347)5/2/2002 2:21:13 PM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (3) of 10921
 
Surely not CYMI with its PE of 478? (429 as of this hour).

You never try to value a company at its cyclical trough with a P/E ratio. It is meaningless at best and deceptive at worst.

Take a look at these 4 equipment companies. I use their present market cap divided by their peak sales:

NVLS 5.2 times peak sales.

KLAC 5.0 times peak sales.

AMAT 4.1 times peak sales.

CYMI 4.3 times peak sales.

Now look at how their sales are faring in this downturn.

NVLS last Q. down 62%

KLAC last Q down 42%

AMAT last Q down 63%

CYMI last Q down 32%

Clearly CYMI is holding sales levels better than their peers in the industry. They are much more likely to surpass their last peak level of sales, IMO, in the coming cycle. I say a strong case can be made that even at these high levels, Cymer is the best buy among the four.
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