As of today, the nasdaq 1 day, 4 day, 10 day, 21 day, and 55 day trin number is as bad or worse than mid April 2000, 4/4/2001, and 9/22/01.
This is with the nas having so many non tech components. It would be a solid bet to say the MSH or the NDX trin numbers are even worse relative to those other bottoms. I also follow the Dow/Nasdaq ratio and it went to a two decade high today of 6.13 at the close. That suggests the nasdaq is 22% undervalued relative to the dow.
This is total repudiation of technology. Just as the market from 1/10/2000 to 3/15/2000 created the greatest opportunity of our lives to rotate from very overpriced tech growth to very undervalued "value," we MAY be seeing the exact opposite. We may not be there yet, the bottom, but that will only mean the eventual numbers will be even more insane. Sunw at 3? Orcl at 5? Csco at 7? Msft at 35? Jdsu, and Cien at 2? Wcom at .25? Qcom at 15? Vrsn at 3? A lot of indices have gone down to touch their 1997-1998 bottoms. As bad as the market has been, the MSH is way about the 1998 low, which was 220. The MSH would have to drop 40% MORE to get there. If it happens, the MSH collapsing even more dramatically, is everyone going to be stunned if it then explodes up 400-500% over 2 or 3 years? You bet they will be.
By the way, check out the just released monetary numbers:
stls.frb.org
Looks like Alan just got religion again. Dumb ass. Supply flat for 4 friggin months as we endure these times. |
