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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: NOW who wrote (37763)	5/2/2002 6:24:05 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) of 209892

davidd, WCOM is a certain chapter 11. I've been thinking that for over 6-months, but I didn't think it would happen this quickly. They are in default with a bunch of their covenants due to their low stock price. The downgrades will rain down on them, forcing the stock price lower in a never ending downspiral. Verizon gets their Long Distance in a chpater 11, IMO. The only question remaining is who winds up with Digex and UUnet. Verizon has no need for Digex, as they already have tons invested in that area. UUnet will be the one asset that will bring some good money. The rest will be bought at fire-sale prices. I looked at WCOM's finances closely because our CLEC was running out of cash by March. I switched to WCOM based upon the assumption that Verizon would end up with the majority of their local and LD business. That still leaves me with a competitive player in my market if it turns out that way. Qwest will also go chapter 11, but they'll re-organize most likely due to the US West connection. LVLT will most likely disappear as an entity. ATT is most likely going to end up as part of SBC too. We'll be left with Bell South, Verizon, SBC, and Quest. Kind of an Oligopoly in the phone biz.

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