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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics
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To: Lone Ranger who wrote (60252)5/2/2002 6:26:42 PM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (2) of 99280
 
mish,
Enjoy reading your posts, especially on max pain. At your convenience, would you please do an analysis on QQQ for this month. tia.

Thanks
Glad to see people liking my posts.
Some think I am an idiot.

QQQ dropped a tick today to 33- as opposed to 33+ where it sat yesterday. This is somewhat surprizing given the high equity P/C ratio today and even higher index P/C ratio today.

Are they loading up on more June QQQ puts. If so, better chance for june rally and May/early june bottom. Have not had time to analyze that.

MSFT is in a clear 50-55 (51-54) range
CSCO at 15 is very doubtful given high calls at that price
INTC is propped up by 27 1/2 puts

All of which lends creedence that if max pain were to fail, this is the time. Notice how we rallied to MSFT 54 today and sold all day. Notice how QQQ is wratcheting ever slowly down (from 35 to 34 to 33). The only way that can happen is if PUTs are being closed and/or calls are being bourht.

I suspect that people are buying short term calls and long term puts as a hedge.

Well guess what.
That means we sink now and rally later.
That's how crooked (rigged or whatever you want to call it), this mess of a wreck is.

In short, I am not playing for a max pain rally this month (unless we dip way below pain and it is obvious we do it based on volume spike up etc).

Since options light this month now is the perfect time to delta hedge and just let the POS market drop. Repeated rallies right to "options resistance" e.g. MSFT 55 CSCO 15 seems to imply that "max pain" COULD die a death this month.

M
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