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Nepal: China's Inaction Opens Door for U.S.
2 May 2002
Summary
Nepalese Foreign Secretary Madhuraman Acharya announced April 30 that China supported the Nepalese government's campaign against the Maoist rebels. Such statements are a significant gesture from the large communist country, which resists meddling in the affairs of other independent states. However, China's diplomatic efforts won't be enough to counter the growing U.S. influence in Nepal.
Analysis
Nepalese Foreign Secretary Madhuraman Acharya said April 30 that China offered its support to the Nepalese government in its six-year fight against the country's Maoist rebels, Agence France-Presse reported. He added that the Chinese government denounced the rebels for misusing the name of Mao Zedong in their effort to overthrow the constitutional monarchy and vowed that the Maoists would not be allowed to cross the border into Tibet.
China's verbal rather than logistical support is consistent with its policy of non-interference in the affairs of other countries. The United States, on the other hand, has offered Nepal financial aid as well as weapons to fight the insurgency. India has also given money, equipment and training. Since China's support of Nepal cannot match that of the United States and India, Beijing will see one of its fears realized: U.S. influence in a country on the border of Tibet.
The surge of violence at the hands of Maoist rebels has killed more than 3,000 people since 1996 and has caused a sharp fall in tourism numbers and foreign investment. The Himalayan country has decided to turn to world powers including Britain, China, India, Russia and the United States for assistance.
India and the United States have taken the lead in support for the Nepalese government. New Delhi gave Katmandu Mi-8 transport helicopters, jeeps, small arms and ammunition to fight the rebels, the Indian Express reported April 26. The Hindustan Times also reported that India sent 30 armored trucks carrying weaponry to Nepal during a covert operation April 23, though an Indian Defense Ministry spokesman denied the existence of any government-to-government transfers of equipment. Finally, Nepalese army commandoes are receiving training in guerrilla warfare from India's prestigious Counter Insurgency and Jungle Warfare School in Virengti in the Mizoram state.
The United States likely will hand over a significant aid package as well. The Bush administration asked Congress to give $20 million in military financing to Nepal's government, U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher announced April 23. At least 12 U.S. military experts have also toured parts of Nepal that are suffering from the insurgency -- the first time foreign military experts have visited Maoist-dominated regions in Nepal, AFP reported.
Nepal is plying the United States for more assistance, including bulletproof helicopters with night vision, bulletproof jackets, headgear, automatic guns and rocket launchers. The government in Kathmandu is doing what it can to ensure international assistance, even though the country's main parliamentary opposition said this week that acceptance of foreign aid would harm Nepal's sovereignty.
Following Acharya's return April 29 from a weeklong trip to Moscow and Beijing, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba said it could take a decade to defeat the Maoist rebels without the help of foreign weapons, but with international assistance they could end the revolt within two years, the Times of India reported. Deuba will travel to Washington to meet with U.S President George W. Bush May 7 to discuss regional security matters, economic and educational cooperation, human rights, democracy and ways to strengten bilateral relations, AFP reported.
U.S. and Indian assistance, however, does not translate into foreign troops on Nepalese soil. Deuba denied that Nepal is in favor of a joint military operation against the Maoists, while suggesting April 27 that he may extend the country's state of emergency to fight the insurgents.
China has monitored Nepal closely both because it serves as a transit route for Tibetan separatists heading to India and to keep Kathmandu from allying too closely with New Delhi. But although Nepal is a strategic neighbor facing great internal instability, China has done little to jump on the military aid bandwagon.
Nepal's King Gyanendra said April 19 that his country would maintain good ties with China, reported Xinhuanet. But without much help from Beijing, Kathmandu will move closer to Washington, which would like as much of a presence on the border with China as possible. China could offer monetary assistance or attempt to send a greater amount of tourists to the country, but its insistence on keeping with the practice of non-interference leaves Nepal open to influence from Beijing's rivals.
Nepal fears intrusion from India and will resist too much cooperation with New Delhi. The United States, on the other hand, would not press too hard on Nepal, such as demanding a troop presence in exchange for aid. As a result, Nepal will readily accept U.S. aid and influence, much to the chagrin of China, which will find itself on the sidelines.
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