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Strategies & Market Trends : Coming Financial Collapse Moderated

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (686)	5/2/2002 7:48:49 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) of 974

... and do not forget this lost corner of the world requiring police action ... stratfor.com QUOTE Colombian Rebels Fighting for Control in Venezuela 29 April 2002 Colombia's two main rebel groups -- the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and National Liberation Army (ELN) -- are battling for control of the lucrative kidnapping, extortion and drug-trafficking trade inside Venezuelan territory. In the past two months, members of the FARC's 10th Front have killed at least 19 members of the ELN's Domingo Lain column, Bogota daily El Tiempo reported April 27. The fighting between the FARC and ELN factions reportedly broke a written agreement between both guerrilla groups to conduct joint kidnapping operations inside Venezuelan territory and share ransoms of between $2 million and $4 million per victim. The 10th Front is currently suspected of holding at least 16 kidnapped Venezuelan ranchers, El Tiempo reported. The 10th Front is also seeking to consolidate its control of a narcotics and arms-smuggling corridor in a 250-square-mile area where the Venezuelan states of Apure, Tachira and Zulia border the Arauca River, which divides both countries. The group's narcotics shipments into Venezuelan territory are reportedly netting the FARC at least $2 million a month. While the ELN leadership is currently in Havana discussing a peace deal with Bogota, the recent fighting could benefit the Colombian army if it triggers confrontations between FARC and ELN forces in other areas of Colombia. Fighting between the FARC and ELN likely will force both organizations to deploy assets against each other and away from attacks against economic infrastructure and military forces. However, it's also likely to intensify armed conflicts and civilian casualties on both sides of the border between Colombia and Venezuela. In fact, the FARC-ELN border war has already caught the attention of the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) paramilitary, which reportedly is deploying forces from Casanare toward the area where the fighting between the 10th Front and Domingo Lain column has been heaviest. The AUC likely will seek to decimate both guerrilla groups in order to disrupt the arms supply corridor from Venezuela and seize control of the narcotics trade in the Apure-Tachira-Zulia region, where Colombian military intelligence sources claim at least 116 clandestine air strips have been identified. Given the nearly total absence of a Venezuelan military presence in the area where the 10th Front and Domingo Lain column are operating, the AUC also may offer its services in training Venezuelan paramilitaries financed by cattle ranchers who are fed up with their government's inability to secure the border with Colombia. Sources with the cattle ranching federations of Apure, Tachira and Zulia states told STRATFOR April 29 that some of their members have already started to finance training and equipment for private security forces to protect their property and families UNQUOTE

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