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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH)
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To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (926)7/11/1997 1:50:00 AM
From: JOHN W.   of 6136
 
Rick, forgive me if I sound a little defensive, but I have heard a lot of David S. lately. On 6/24 you announced you had sold your shares a couple of weeks prior. You stated you wanted to pursue a more of a "venture" situation. I think your post is a reality check and a good balanced discussion on AGPH's prospects. However,
1) My retail broker in his stance of relative ignorance has done quite well for me. I have no complaints, as I'm sure there are many that like their retail broker's performance..
2) "any indication of tox from Viracept or from PIs in general, and you' lose a significant portion of your investment overnight" Very true, how fitting this is the 1 month anniversary of the FDA warning (6/11/97) of the 83 cases of new or exacerbated diabetes from the PIs. AGPH dropped a few points to the low 80s and recovered in a
few days. PI market is growing, Viracept is gaining marketshare, and
it is very unlikely a side effect will appear which will cause PIs to become obsolete. As you know, nelf had only 2 out of the 83. One of the cases was very questionable if nelf was the cause. (83 out of 150,000)
3) It appears you have become much more pessimistic on the pipeline now. I assure you that I never thought AGPH would be selling the cure for the common cold at 7-11's. However, this will still be a blockbuster.
4) It appears Roche believes a great deal in the unproven concept of AG3340. I just don't see Thymitaq or AG3340 being another Ventus/Lippo situation. How well they compete in the market? Too early to worry unless Roche backs away from the AG3340 deal. Not going to happen.

What is the reason for the change in optimism? Is it based on new findings or is it your change of holdings in AGPH? I hope David did not wear you down.

Regards, John.
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