Commentary from CBS MarketWatch...
cbs.marketwatch.com
<<...Bruce Steinberg, Merrill Lynch's chief economist, doesn't expect the Fed to tighten until August at the earliest. While he believes 6 percent is close to the highs the jobless rate will reach during the current cycle, he also feels the central bank will be loathe to raise rates while the unemployment rate is still rising, regardless of the strength of the economy.
"Despite strong economic growth, we think that the labor market will show only very gradual improvement in 2002. That's because corporate restructuring activities will continue full force as companies resize themselves for profitability," Steinberg told clients in a research note.
While a shock-effect is assured with a 6-percent jobless rate, economists pointed to the lagging nature of that statistic.
"Anemic job growth and a rising unemployment rate are disappointing, but don't necessarily signal an economy slipping backwards. I see positive signs in this report [that] reinforce my belief the economy has turned the corner and will strengthen steadily, if moderately, in the months ahead," commented Bill Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services
Cheney noted that employment grew in the private sector, meaning that the economy didn't rely on the government to create new jobs. Additionally, temporary jobs grew substantially for a third straight month, a precursor of permanent hiring in the coming months...>> |
