| 3:00PM Oracle (ORCL) 8.25 -0.30: The world's second largest software company is on the defensive yet again... Stock has fallen to its lowest level in nearly three years, as another brokerage firm - this time Goldman Sachs - cut its earnings estimates for FY02 and FY03... Citing weak industry conditions Goldman lowered its estimates to $0.38 and $0.35 from $0.40 and $0.40... Consensus estimates for FY02 and FY03 (prior to the Goldman news) were $0.40 and $0.46, respectively... While Briefing.com doesn't dispute the notion that ORCL faces tough times in the months ahead, we do challenge the view put forth by Merrill yesterday that now is not the time to bargain hunt in the industry... In the case of ORCL we think now is a decent time to do some buying for the long-term, and, as such, will be adding the stock to our Growth Core at the end of trading today... We are not attempting to call the bottom, simply noting that ORCL's leadership position, strong balance sheet and proven management team means it will be a survivor... In fact, the company's long-term position will most likely be enhanced by the industry downturn, as many of its smaller competitors will struggle to keep their doors open... This will afford ORCL, with its deep pockets, the opportunity to gain market share... During big sector downturns like the one taking place in technology at the moment, what investors want to do is adjust their portfolios to make sure they own the right stocks once the tone improves... In Briefing.com's opinion, ORCL is just such a stock. -- Robert Walberg, Briefing.com |
