OK Gottfried, you put me on the spot.<gg>
I'm going to base my estimate(s) on past cycles and try to extrapolate that data to make some predictions about the future.
This post will not describe all the work that I did to arrive at my predictions, but I will try to give some overall rationale for how I approached the estimate.
First, I noted that since Jan 95, there have been 3 booking up cycles and the 4th cycle has just started. I am assuming that past history can be extrapolated to the future.
The first up cycle went from Jan 95 to Feb 96. The bookings went from 892K to 1687K. Drawing a straight line between those 2 points gives an average monthly bookings increase per month of 61K.
The second up cycle went from Sep 96 to Oct 97. The bookings went from 778K to 1835K. Drawing a straight line between those 2 points gives an average monthly bookings increase per month of 81K.
The third up cycle went from Sep 98 to Aug 00. The bookings went from 481K to 2984K. Drawing a straight line between those 2 points gives an average monthly bookings increase per month of 104K.
The fourth up cycle has just started. The low point in bookings was Nov 01 at 589K. Four months later, Mar 02, the bookings were 839K. Over the 4 month period, the bookings increased at the monthly rate of 63K. I tend to think that is a little low so I calculated another number using just the last 2 months, Feb and Mar. That average monthly increase was 92K.
If those 2 numbers are used, the results are a little different for the end of the year. Using the 92K for the rest of the year gives a 1667K monthly estimated booking rate at year end. Using the 63K number gives a 1406K monthly estimated booking rate at year end.
Looking at those 2 numbers, I said lets split the difference and call it 1500K by year end for a monthly booking rate.
By plotting all these numbers on a graph, an estimate can also be made for how long the bookings number will increase and at what value will it peak. I made this estimate by using a graph and extrapolating from the 2 peaks in 96 and 97. This line, and the rising bookings line from this expansion, intersect at approximately Dec 03 with a value of approximately 2400K.
These estimates are straight line estimates so some "squiggles" might be expected, but it will be interesting to see if they are anywhere close to the mark as time marches on.<gg>
Don |
