Hi Don,
First, I'd like to say that I'm a long-time listener, first-time caller. As they say on radio shows.
Without meaning to quibble, I assume that all the K's in your post should be M's (as in millions).
To extrapolate from your figures, I assume that the sum total of equip bookings during the 3 up-swing periods were:
Jan 95 to Feb 96 -> $16,800 m.
Sep 96 to Oct 97 -> $17,000 m.
Sep 98 to Aug 00 -> $41,568 m.
Doodling some more with the figures, I get that from Jan 95 to Aug 96 (a total cycle), avg monthly booking were $1,210m.
Then the 2nd cycle, Sept 96 to Aug 98, avg monthly bookings were $1,190m.
In the third cycle, Sept 98 to Oct 01, avg monthly bookings were $1,750m.
So the question is whether the industry will run at the $1,200m/month avg that prevailed from Jan 95 to Aug 98 ? Or whether it has permanently bumped up to $1,750m/month avg of the past 3.5 years ?
From looking at the over-capacity that exists at fab facilities. And also from noting that Intel's cap budget for this year is $5.5 b, which I think is down 2b from last year, and also others like LSI which is not increasing spending, I'd say the lower of your estimates is more likely for this year. I don't know whether Micron has indicated their budget or not.
My guess is a lot of the higher level of spending in the last cycle came from telecom, which has no money to spend now, even if they wanted to.
So I vote for $1,400m by year end.
I hope that was coherent.
Sarmad |
