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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 270.83

+1.0%

Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (3032)	5/5/2002 11:49:25 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) of 95463

What do last weeks sellers know that we don't? That WCOM won't go bankrupt but that it will probably cut its capital spending budget by billions again (I think it is now at $5B). Others, to stay competitive meaning to not go under, will do the same. My thinking is that companies that make the PLD and gate array chips made fortunes selling into these markets... and they still have huge PEs and a PEG relies on huge future growth... and I am not at all confident that LSI, XLNX and ALTR will see that sort of growth. Companies like MXIM and LLTC that were counting on chips to drive fiber optics T's and R's to provide their growth targets are probably toast too as far as the expected growth rates.... I do think companies selling bleeding edge equipment (AMAT, LRCX, NVLS, etc...) will do well as the way to make money is to lower chip cost and give more functionality. Also the China wild card is there which is a huge growth opportunity just to satisfy their expected internal market if they can raise capital to buy the gear. Kirk

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