Nas 2800 when stock valuations were 50 to 100 times higher
You are just tracking valuations.
Thoise companies actually had growth then. Now they were insanely overvalued but the GROWTH IS GONE.
On a PE basis (with ZERO chance of growth returning to the buildup hype we saw) these stocks are still extremely expensive.
By watching valuations you might have been buying JNPR at 100 on the basis that it is a good compant at a 50% discount. Then it was a better deal at a 80% discount. 90% is it a good deal? WOW look at JNPR available at $9 when it was over $200.
WTF does price have to do with anything.
If price is your metric buy some PALM like some did at $5. Add more at $ 4, add more at $3, and wow add some more at $2.50 or whereever it is.
The plain fact of the matter is:
1) by any REASONABLE valuation metric BRCD EMLX QLGC AMAT KLAC NTAP CSCO JNPR are way over-valued.
2) PEs are thru the roof, and growth is not there. These companies produce commodities and the competition is so intense (with so little protit) that margins as well as pricing powere have collapsed.
3) Now you have CSCO entering some of these spaces that it was not in, the outcome of which is likely to be more pricing pressure and fewer profits.
4) If you want to buy based on how far something has fallen, might I suggest INSP? How about ENE at .30 (oops is that ZERO now).
5) What does the correct answer in 1998 based on price have to do with the correct action now at the same price. In light of the fact that growth is gone, how about NOTHING.
BRCD EMLX MU CSCO AMAT KLAC VRTS JNPR etc etc etc are ALL going to take out Spet bottoms IMHO.
Now, could they be good buys here for a bounce?
Who knows.
I doubt it.
3 years from now I doubt many of those stocks will be higher than they are today, and if they are I doubt it will be by a huge %.
You have placed your bet and I have placed mine.
If I buy these stocks, and I might, it will only be in the full knowlege that they are all over-hyped POS stocks (at these PE's), with little to no earnings and little chance for great earnings for a long period of time. I might buy them because more than likely there will be "another train leaving the station" for more LTBHers to hop on and get smoked. I would buy hoping to exit the trap door before the train plunges again into the next abyss down.
I fail to understand how someone can see the market drop day in and day out, with monthly lower lows being set, with no bottom retest in place, and every chance we take out thos bottoms and plunge to new lows.
BTW- I ask again a question you failed to answer the last time.
What is your exit point?
What will it take for you to admit you were wrong?
Maz 1300, naz 1200, naz 1000, naz 800
Answer that.
We answered you.
M |
