Vitas, re more on the TRIN.
Decisionpoint shows the classical TRIN, NAS TRIN and as of this weekend a Total Market TRIN. This is in addition to the Eliades Trin and TRIN-5. The Total Market Trin is most interesting and calculated from NYSE, NAS and AMEX data. I don't know the weightings, but would assume them somewhat even.
I had never heard of the 2 day/TRIN greater than 2 theory until it came up here the other day, only the TRIN 10 dma greater than 1.5 / 21 day theory.
Decisionpoint quit using the standard 10 dma calculation as well. At present all 10 dma calcs are based on the 'open' calculation method, which yield slightly different results. All other dma calcs are however based on the standard method.
The 10 dma open Total Market TRIN was just below 1.5 about 2 weeks ago, then decreased, and is now above 1.5. Inference would be a market bottom is still 2 to 3 weeks out.
As I look through all of the Decision point TRIN charts, I see no signs of positive divergence. More the opposite, and it has been that way for some time.
The 55 dma Total Market Trin is now at a recent high. The last high was not on Sept 11th, but was in early Aug 01. The 21 dma Total Market Trin is just below previous recent highs, again established early Aug 01.
IMHO were charting new territory, and this is not a time to become overembellished with prior guidelines. Given the overall trends of the various TRIN charts, it would seem the probability for a 'black Monday', or maybe even more than one, is much higher than zero. |
