SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Dow Dogs, Foolish Four and other market-beating strategies
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Paul Shread who started this subject5/6/2002 12:23:13 AM
From: llackey   of 82
 
Current list of all S&P MidCap 400 stocks under either 10 Yr downside or 5 Yr downside targets based on the method outlined in "Trouncing The Dow". Sorted by Price/10 Yr downside target. Column headings are explained at Message 17075366 and here.

		Price	10Yr	10Yr	Price/	5Yr	5Yr	Price/	04-06	04-06	EPS	Buf	Altman		
Ticker	Update	5/3	Down	Up	10YDwn	Down	Up	5Y Dwn	Down	Up	Growth	Value	Z Scr	Ind.	Name
SRP	2/15	5.8	21.63	28.60	-73%	27.42	39.17	-79%	25.96	34.32	525%	-27.12	N/A	UTILWEST	Sierra Pacific Resources (New)
IVX	4/26	11.26	20.50	46.22	-45%	20.70	54.32	-46%	37.99	85.65	13%	15.37	2.554	DRUG    	IVAX Corp.
ILA	4/5	17.25	30.29	42.38	-43%	27.06	42.11	-36%	43.76	61.23	48%	12.66	N/A	UTILCENT	Aquila, Inc.
SY	3/1	12.76	21.40	46.95	-40%	N/A	N/A	N/A	34.70	76.14	204%	26.22	3.187	SOFTWARE	Sybase Inc.
BRL	4/26	67.45	103.32	243.12	-35%	83.10	202.39	-19%	136.29	320.71	-19%	87.70	13.518	DRUG    	Barr Laboratories
TDS	4/5	83.4	124.99	205.49	-33%	N/A	N/A	N/A	202.58	333.07	3%	60.58	1.764	TELESERV	Telephone & Data Systems
VLO	3/22	42.99	56.65	93.46	-24%	43.78	77.16	-2%	85.43	140.94	-10%	16.27	1.594	OILINTEG	Valero Energy
RSAS	3/1	6.01	7.68	27.66	-22%	7.74	29.35	-22%	18.73	67.52	263%	4.52	2.673	SOFTWARE	RSA Security Inc.
TSN	2/8	14.7	17.94	27.76	-18%	20.62	33.42	-29%	35.83	55.44	77%	20.80	2.418	FOODPROC	Tyson Foods
WEC	4/5	25.9	31.42	40.04	-18%	33.68	45.83	-23%	39.52	50.37	19%	-0.90	N/A	UTILCENT	Wisconsin Energy
GXP	4/5	23.46	27.96	34.51	-16%	29.35	36.09	-20%	35.14	43.37	25%	40.69	N/A	UTILCENT	Great Plains Energy Inc.
LNT	4/5	27.94	33.00	41.14	-15%	33.37	43.23	-16%	38.99	48.61	25%	0.00	N/A	UTILCENT	Alliant Energy
OHP	3/29	45.48	51.97	122.84	-12%	N/A	N/A	N/A	68.62	162.18	12%	63.29	6.943	MEDSERV 	Oxford Health Plans
PZZA	3/15	32.08	36.49	67.49	-12%	30.20	55.08	6%	46.25	85.54	8%	37.07	5.687	RESTRNT 	Papa John's Int'l.
PSD	2/15	20.59	23.14	30.57	-11%	24.31	33.88	-15%	27.25	36.00	338%	28.03	N/A	UTILWEST	Puget Energy, Inc. (Hldg. Co.)
BKS	2/15	30.75	34.22	67.13	-10%	30.07	64.66	2%	59.51	116.75	41%	N/A	3.134	RETAILSP	Barnes & Noble
POM	3/8	22.42	24.52	32.01	-9%	24.06	32.02	-7%	29.98	39.13	23%	32.55	N/A	UTILEAST	Potomac Electric Power
MYL	4/26	26.43	28.63	54.32	-8%	28.16	56.25	-6%	36.20	68.69	7%	38.88	8.372	DRUG    	Mylan Laboratories
SNPS	3/1	41.71	43.15	85.02	-3%	34.54	72.45	21%	66.14	130.31	85%	31.65	3.875	SOFTWARE	Synopsys Inc.
OCR	4/5	27.87	28.44	56.56	-2%	25.37	51.71	10%	48.44	96.32	46%	29.84	2.061	DRUGSTOR	Omnicare, Inc.
PAS	2/8	15.25	15.43	22.21	-1%	19.97	31.75	-24%	19.25	27.71	68%	27.12	1.916	BEVERAGE	PepsiAmericas, Inc.
ROL	3/15	20.25	18.17	25.91	11%	35.23	52.10	-43%	28.51	40.65	23%	18.99	5.861	INDUSRV 	Rollins, Inc.
DQE	3/8	19.72	17.21	24.36	15%	22.24	33.64	-11%	25.83	36.56	150%	60.58	N/A	UTILEAST	DQE, Inc.
CDN	3/1	19.21	16.06	38.29	20%	25.38	60.69	-24%	22.76	54.27	29%	26.22	8.005	SOFTWARE	Cadence Design Systems
DV	2/8	25.79	7.84	15.74	229%	25.88	53.36	0%	13.13	26.35	15%	11.75	14.255	EDUC    	DeVRY Inc.
MVSN	2/8	20.35	N/A	N/A	N/A	26.15	97.25	-22%	N/A	N/A	3%	15.37	40.369	ENT TECH	Macrovision Corp.
ISCA	2/22	43.02	N/A	N/A	N/A	45.02	80.30	-4%	N/A	N/A	29%	37.07	3.184	RECREATE	International Speedway
CSGS	3/15	27.02	N/A	N/A	N/A	27.17	65.87	-1%	N/A	N/A	0%	37.07	9.956	INDUSRV 	CSG Systems Int'l.

I'm adding a new column Altman Z score. In summary the Altman Z score calulates a score which is fairly accurate in predicting bankruptcy. The lower the score the more likely the company is to go bankrupt in the next year.

According to Altman's 1968 research there are two bounds < 1.81 bankrupt within 1 year and > 2.99 survived at least 1 year. Between those two bounds is a risky gray area where the company may or may not make it.

One big caveat is this formula works only with industrial companies. The Altman formula doesn't work real well with utilities. Over the next couple of weeks I'm going to see if I can refine this formula further so it extends into the service and financial industries. In those industries where Z Score won't work, I'll exclude the calc (like utilities above). So far, I've found the formula but not the bounds.

Z Score = 1.2*( Working Capital Latest Qtr/ Total Assets)+1.4*( (% Retained to Common Equity*.01* Common Equity Latest Qtr)/ Total Assets)+3.3*( Income Before Taxes/ Total Assets)+0.6*( Market Cap $ Mil/ (Total Current Liabilities+ Long Term Debt))+( Sales Trail 12 Mo/ Total Assets). I use Net Income instead of Income Before Taxes when the company is showing a loss due to a quirk in the VL database.

If you want to learn more about the Altman Z score see stern.nyu.edu.

- Lee
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News