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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here
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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (12211)5/6/2002 9:25:32 AM
From: willcousa  Read Replies (1) of 12823
 
This is a very interesting discussion topic. I have a lot of disjointed thoughts about it. FWIW One must be very careful making analogies in this area.

Like many a real estate boom and bust, it depends a whole lot on whether you can get a lender or an IPO buyer to fund a project. The merit of the project may fall by the wayside or the timing may be way off. In real estate a developer who can get a project funded and his allied parties - contractors, architects, realtors all stand to profit to varying degrees if the project gets funded. Thus there are drivers other than the end market with real econmic motives to make a project happen. With the build-out of the railroads this happened too. The promoters were elevated in power, there were government subsidies like land grants and loan guarantees and political constituencies who wanted a railroad to run through their state or land grant.

The initial build-out of the highway system reminds me a lot of the advent of wireless now. The public wanted more flexibility and if the government didn't do it for them they did it themselves. The interstate highway system had its' antecedents in the turnpikes that the states banded together to build from New York to Chicago. Again, politics and government money played a big part in routing and timing. Much of the interstate was built out ahead of demand and itself dictated where development would take place.

Some has been said about the ability to increase the capacity of fiber in place as we move forward. It seems there are daily advances in this line but the need for that capacity isn't there at the moment. Look for the makers of fiber to lobby the government to dictate the laying of fiber to areas which do not have much access now and look for wireless to try and meet that need instead. I notice American U. in D.C. is going totally wireless and looking at future savings of not having to maintain and expand their wired campus. This with a student population of only 10,000. Less developed countries have been doing this, first with microvave vs. land lines, then with sat comm, now it seems cost effective for a small university.

On obsolesence. I remember our first mainframe installation at my then place of work. Very soon another company came out with a much better box. Our needs for capacity grew. This happened over and over again. For years that company continued to use every stick of capacity it had ever installed, simply relegating the less productive parts of the system to the uses of lesser priority. I think we could see this played out in telecom.
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