While P/S, P/B, and PE are popular measures of a company's value, they are somewhat simplistic. Despite that, I disagree that ORCL is pricey even based on those measures. The stock is trading at 19 times trailing earnings, but those trailing earnings were down 58% last year. In contrast, Oracle's earnings grew 375% from 1999 to 2000, the year before the economic slow down. Taking a longer term view, the company's earnings grew 47% over the last three years and 34% over the last five years. I don't think that a PE of 19 is pricey taking into account their long term growth rate, and in fact, it is undervalued in my opinion. The only way that you could conclude that the stock is overvalued now is if you think the earnings growth in 2000 was a fluke. I wouldn't share that opinion.
ORCL's stock has gotten hammered because their earnings were down in 2001 and we are in a bear market. The company's earnings are only down 1 penny in the first three quarter's of 2002 compared to the first three quarters of 2001. There are signs that the economy is bottoming and there are signs that the decline in Oracle's earnings is bottoming. Where do you think the stock will trade when earnings start increasing? Where do you think it will trade when they get earnings back to $1.04 where they were in 2000?
One more point: Oracle's revenue was actually up about $700 million (7%) in 2001 even though their earnings fell 58%. Like many companies, management probably didn't see the slower revenue growth coming and didn't cut expenses fast enough. Revenue through the first three quarters of 2002 is down $767 million (10%) over the same period of 2001 yet earnings are flat. That is a sign that management has reacted to the environment and cut expenses a reasonable amount. A technology company such as Oracle can't cut back too much however, or they could lose their edge. When the economy recovers, ORCL's stock will undoubtedly trade well above where it is today. |
