Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 161.43

+1.4%

Nov 12 3:59 PM EST

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To: Paul V. who wrote (10367)	5/6/2002 4:41:50 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) of 10921

I wrote this elsewhere, but it should help with your question: Why I like this sector: Chips are expected to go from their current 0.7% GWP {Gross World Product} to 5.3% of GWP in the next few years (10?). But, "Semiconductor sales would equal the gross world product in 60 years if the growth trends of the past three decades continue". So the question is when do we reach "maturity" where growth rates are slower? In a paper given by Chenming Hu, my College Device Physics (how transistors work) professor and now dean of Electrical Engineering at UC Berkeley, he writes "Fig 3 shows a plausible scenario of the steady state. [Semi sales/GWP] would be 3%. This is today's value doubled twice. Two doublings suggests 6 more generation of new technologies to 0.035um technology before reaching the steady state. At that time, the semiconductor industry is 25 times the present size in real dollars; one year's growth would be larger than today's entire industry. After 2030, the semiconductor industry may become a mature industry growing at the same rate as the GWP much like the automotive industry in the last 60 years or the airplane industry in the last 40 years." Prof Hu's paper concludes: "The exponential growth of the semiconductor technology will likely continue as long as the industry grows as a faster rate than the gross world product. It is proposed that the next three generation of technology will be introduces at the historical rate. The next three generations of technologies will take increasingly longer time to develop. The industry growth rate slows down to that of the gross world product in about 30 years when 0.035um CMOS is the prevailing technology. Technology scaling will become unexpected, incidental, and rare. In that sense, the semiconductor industry will become similar to what the automotive industries has been in the past 50 years." Full text of Prof. Hu's talk: lxm.cs.pku.edu.cn Quick Summary: 0.035um in 2030 then the industry is mature. Good odds of a displacement technology by then much as PCs displaced mainframes. Kirk

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