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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 275.13+3.0%Dec 10 3:59 PM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (63476)5/7/2002 2:46:08 AM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
If [ECMs] bottom it bodes well.

Sure, but I don't see any sign of a bottom just yet on my charts. You know, I used to keep a Yahoo watchlist of ECMs. FWIW, here is the list: ACTM ALRN BH CMCI DDL DIIG ELAMF FLEFE GRTK IECE JBIL NTAIF PLXS SANM SCI SFLX SGMA SLR SMOD
I see that most of the symbols have disappeared. Is this the mother of all industry consolidations, or what?

I think that the main reason I have shied away from investing in ECMs is a certain lack of understanding or belief in the basic industry model. It seems to me that ECMs often do deals with companies that are in some distress and anxious to get certain assets off their books and that these deals often include transfers of plants, equipment and labor. It seems quite a bit more complicated than simply hiring TSM, for example, to manufacture your chips, and the accounting has to be much messier. Can you relieve me of my prejudice that frequently the ECM outsourcing deal is not struck until it has become all too apparent to the firm doing the outsourcing that the product life cycle is on the decline? Do I as a shareholder really adequately understand and want to accept such potential risks?

Foundries are a different kettle of fish. That outsourcing model makes complete sense to me so I own TSM. But when a boxmaker asks me to manufacture their widgets, I have to wonder why they are offering to do me such a favor. Does this make any sense, Gottfried, or am I totally clueless?

Sam
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