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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks

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To: DanZ who wrote (39396)	5/7/2002 7:41:26 AM
From: Joe Stocks	Read Replies (1) of 53068

>> You might not pick the bottom, but if you buy a little here and a little there on the way down, I think you will do well.<< Very dangerous in my opinion. Better to buy a little here and there on the way "UP" in my opinion. I remember back in Jan 2001 when the Fed lowered rates and some were saying then to buy because for one, stocks were almost always higher one year after the first reduction. And two, that familiar refrain, "don't fight the FED". Better to trade what you see than what you think. Many want you to "think" to economy is on the mend. However, if you look at the big picture it is hard to see the recovery. I think we are in a major bear market that will last a number of years. The complacency I see now almost assures that in my mind. Demographic trends will seal the deal of the bear market for some time to come. Just my opinion but I certainly would not be buying against the overall market trend at this time for longer term holdings. If one does I believe they will see a series of disappointing results. The examples are many now of bottom fishers having their butt handed back to them. Look at AOL, TYC, WCOM and others as examples. >>Isn't that what you are doing when you say that ORCL is expensive based on trailing P/S, P/B, and PE? << No, actually I am arguing the opposite. ORCL would appear cheap as compared to it's trailing numbers. For my basis I'm using raw numbers of what one is willing to pay for book, sales and earnings. Of course those numbers are relative to past historical valuations of stocks in general. ORCL had in the past traded at a premium. I am saying that I don't believe that ORCL no longer deserves that premium and needs to be looked at with a fresh eye. If you use old parameters of the late 90's I believe you may be overpaying for some of these techie's and others. Joe

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