Z Best Place to Talk Stocks Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: Joe Stocks who wrote (39400)	5/7/2002 8:02:33 AM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (2) of 53068

Nobody knows if they are buying on the way up until the market moves up and proves that they bought on the way up. How much does a stock have to rally before you believe that a bottom is in? Let's use ORCL for an example. If it rallies to 9, will you think a bottom is in? How about if it rallies to 11? How about if you wait until it gets to 16? Let's say you buy at 11 and that is the top for a while and it pulls back to 9? My plan is to buy ORCL (and other stocks) at a price that I think is reasonable, and sell as it goes up. If it keeps going down I'll buy more. As I said, I wouldn't do this with ANY stock. Can I lose money? Sure, but you if aren't willing to take a risk, you shouldn't buy stocks. The idea is to buy at a time when you think you have a good risk/reward. The risk is never 0. Anyone that knows me can attest to the fact that I am a proponent of technical analysis. However, I have never used technical analysis to predict stock prices, nor do I think anyone can predict stock prices with any degree of consistency. Nobody knows when ORCL will make a bottom. Nobody knows if will pull back after it rallies X points. Now I would agree that ORCL isn't trading near any recent support and I couldn't call it a buy from that perspective. However it is a buy based on my belief that the decline it has suffered in the last few weeks, coupled with the decline that the Nasdaq has suffered in the last few weeks, are not sustainable in the short term. Thanks for your comments. We disagree. <g> Dan PS: I don't really understand your comments related to PS, PE, and PB. With a trailing PE of 19 and a long term growth rate about twice that much, ORCL is trading at a reasonable valuation using traditional old economy valuation methods. You are just choosing to use 1 year trailing data and I am using 3 and 5 year data.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next