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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 161.43+1.4%3:59 PM EST
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To: Kirk © who wrote (10371)5/7/2002 10:52:36 AM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Kirk,

From your quoted paper:

Two doublings suggests 6 more generation of new technologies to 0.035um technology before reaching the steady state. At that time, the semiconductor industry is 25 times the present size in real dollars;

25 times, in real terms, with the portion of GWP 4 times today implies a real world economy 6.25 times today's. (25/4)

For the economy to be 6.25 times bigger in 28 years it would have to grow 6.8% a year. I think this is overly optimistic. In real terms, I don't see the world economy growing more than 4% a year during that period and maybe not more than 3.5%.

Still, that makes the semiconductor business ten times bigger in real terms and that's one fabulous growth industry.
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