Not to put too fine a point about it, but dude... have you looked at a RMBS chart lately? Understand that I bought RMBS at 40, and it was easily the worst "investment" i've ever made, so I'm hardly bragging, but man alive, if that's the best counter-example you can come up with, you should keep looking. For the record, RMBS was at 23 at the beginning of 1999, and it's about 6 now (and headed for worse, IMO). Hey, the RMBS shorts were jerks, but they did pretty well (as did the momo longs who got out at the top of course, but the LTBHers got slaughtered).
Just because the stock is down, doesn't mean the shorts were right. The shorts were saying RMBS was a goner company. The company is still here and doing fairly well. They were wrong. The reason the stock is down is because of the overall market. Any shorts in Rambus were just lucky that technology crashed. There is a difference between being right based on the assumptions you made and simply making money for being lucky.
I know I am right. You are not seeing my point. Rambus's fundamentals have improved and RDRAM did not disappear. The shorts were wrong about that. Just because the stock is down doesn't mean they were right. Can you understand that distinction?
Secondly, did you see what happened to Rambus' stock in 2000 or did you forget? It went from $90 to $400 you know. So were the shorts right? I doubt the shorts did pretty well as you said. I'd probably guess most of them lost money. How can you even think shorts were right on Rambus? If you were a short on RMBS and heard that Hitachi caved in and signed a royalty agreement and so did a few other memory companies, you were probably sh*tting in your pants. For a second there, it looked like Rambus was going to be the gorilla of memory. So the shorts were way off. I don't remember any of the shorts in 1999 saying anything about what happened in 2000, 2001, and 2002.
So my example is a good one. You can agree to disagree. If you don't have any empirical data, then why are you even saying it?
Until we have proof that shorts are smarter than everyone else, then why even believe this? Doesn't sound rational to me, but your decision.
Like so many people say the market goes up 9-11% a year historically. Ummm...did anyone see happened happened in 1969 to 1982? Does anyone take into account inflation, which means it would have taken until 1990 or so till you were even again? |
