I thought about writing one of my long-winded posts about market direction before I disappear for a few days again, yet to do such a post justice requires a host of data and charts. And my present life circumstances don't permit me the time to flesh it out properly.
In fact, I should be pursuing the chance to publish it someplace where I can get paid for my research. But I'll post an outline here, without the data and charts, simply to provide my expectations.
Death of the Techno-Trader
Tech is not dead. But the market serving as a leading indicator is dead. Tech will flourish to a pinnacle in coming years but the market heyday, which historically precedes such an event, is past.
Consolidation within the tech world is the name of the game now. The days of easy daytrading in the tech mkt is not gone temporarily; it's gone for good.
Will NASDAQ serve up new lows this month, or July (which I'd long predicted as likely), or this year? Perhaps. But the real bottom is likely to come in 2003... where NASDAQ could see 600.
So where's the money to be made?
Well, the DOW teeters on the verge of its own collapse, though percentagewise, it shouldn't be as severe as the NASDAQ plummet. Shorting the bigger names on the DOW or (what's the DOW version of QQQ?) is one way to go.
I think the DOW will hit 6500 and may break 6000 this year... and perhaps within 5 months. The time to short it is NOW.
The other strategy is to buy gold. Preferably the metal, not the mining stocks, though either should treat you well.
Within a week, gold should pull back a little. Buy and sell in about 5 months, if you're a trader..... or hold for 2 to 3 years if you're an investor.
I'm convinced, unless you are amazingly adept at ferreting out unknowns with huge potential, that these strategies will outperform all others in the next two years.
Forget analysts, forget Enron, forget Greenspan, forget the next 'hot' sector, forget Warren Buffett, forget Al Qaida. Forget the old signals of SOX VIX TRIN VXN as they will decline in usefulness. Go short the DOW and long gold. Whatever comes, this will work.
Sorry I haven't the time to splain it all here, but I assure you it's not crackpot theory.
I just hafta go make some real-time money nearterm and can't donate the time to flesh this out properly now.
I hope you heed the call, I hope my analysis is correct, and I wish you pleasant returns.
-Kev |
