Syria ...
stratfor.com
Axis Listing Will Force Assad To Make a Stand
7 May 2002
The United States has added Syria to a growing list of members of the "axis of evil," which also includes Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya and North Korea. Relations between Washington and Damascus have been strained in recent months, and the Bush administration is unsure of Syria's commitment to the war against terrorism.
Related Analysis:
Cuba's 'Axis' Listing Cover for Other U.S. Goals
U.S. Sending Message To Libya
Washington stepped up the pressure on Damascus in early April, listing Syria alongside Iran and Iraq as a country that encourages terrorism. That apparently failed to encourage the Syrian government to cooperate with anti-terrorism efforts to the extent that Washington wishes. By formally listing Syria as an axis member, the United States once again is ratcheting up pressure against Damascus.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad now has been forced into a position from which he must take decisive action and not continue waffling in his support for U.S. anti-terrorism operations. This is precisely where Washington wants him. The United States has been very clear that countries are either "with us or against us," and those still sitting on the fence are being actively nudged.
The question now is whether Assad has the strength to weather the pressure. Unlike his father, Assad has grounded his policies for Syria's future in economic reforms. However, he now may find himself needing to abandon -- or at least postpone -- his economic initiatives and turn to more draconian measures to maintain control inside Syria. Alternately, the added impetus from Washington could prove the catalyst Assad needs to finally overcome the factions and constituents inside Syria that maintain contacts with Iraq and groups like Hezbollah, Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.
Washington is demonstrating its frustration with Syria's indecisiveness by including it in the axis of evil category. This leaves Assad with a stark choice: he must either confront his advisers and constituents who oppose Syrian acquiescence to U.S. will, or take up the harder line as his own, throwing his economic programs to the wind. The pressing question is whether Assad alone has the strength to do either. |
