The bottom is in.
I've been saying this, recently, on a number of threads, and Cisco's results are one more reinforcement of that opinion. I've been surprised at how low this latest market dip went, and I was a bit too Exuberant, loading up too early. As a result, all my CSCO (my largest holding at the moment), were bought from 14 to 15. For the rest of 2002, the trend is flat or up, for quality stocks. Lots of volatility will continue, but that's just an opportunity (to buy low and sell high while those around them do the opposite).
I, too, will be selling my higher-cost shares of CSCO on rallies, but I think we've got a good shot at returning to 20 or so, in the not-too-distant future (next few months). The December 2001 rally took the stock to 21.92, and the May 2001 rally peaked at 24.12. Since the stock is beating forecasts, and getting upgraded, rather than missing and getting downgraded, I think it's reasonable to think we return to those levels, at least temporarily. Mr. Market seems to be rapidly cycling, every 2-3 months, between manic and depressive phases. We will have one or two more manic phases in 2002, and I think CSCO will be one of the leaders of the upcoming rally. |
