2000 y2k Crisis - Early Warning Signals Message Board

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Technology Stocks : 2000 y2k Crisis - Early Warning Signals

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To: MilesRW who wrote ()	7/11/1997 12:59:00 PM
From: Peter Fiala	of 14

(SPECULATIVE) IMHO - an indication that CEO's and other decision makers are taking the Y2K threat seriously will be a constant upward pressure on ALL software engineers salaries. As the traditional consulting firms run out of full-time employees and contractors to assign to their Y2K gigs, they will recruit even more heavily from corporations (because their are NO unemployed software engineers). Software engineers will be getting multiple recruiting calls daily for offers to increase their current salaries by 25-100% if they would accept contract positions. In order for corporations to retain their in-house staff they will need to match the offers. Medium term (1-3 years), this will lead to increased business and proffits for consulting firms, not only a result of Y2K business, but also new business from companies now unable to afford to retain their own in-house development staff. Also, many companies when faced with task of re-developing in-house solutions will opt to implement turn-key off-the-shelf solutions - look for companies like ORACLE/CA/BAAN to have increased sales of their Enterprise Wide solutions - and Microsoft to enter this arena. Long term (> 3 years), law of supply and demand should alleviate shortages as new graduates enter market and demand for development tapers off. Companies will have rushed to complete most of their reengineering of systems by Y2K and will likely slow the pace of development for at least a few years. However, many will have grown accustomed to the concepts of outsourcing and may feel comfortable in continuing to outsource instead of maintaining in-house staff. Companies will rely on solution vendors much more heavily for upgrades and supports as opposed to in-house staff. Consulting firms will likely see drop-off in revenues, but software suppliers will see ongoing revenue from liscenses and maintenance. So, for indicators - short term look for tech salaries to double, and Enterprise Wide solutions providers to realize increased sales. I'm not sure where the best place is to get these figures - but I've got a pretty good pulse of tech salaries, so I'll keep you updated. Peter

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