I feel like sometimes we keep going around in circles. I'll reiterate...
It has been my contention all along, and it's a mundane one, that we were headed for one of 2 surprises as of last week:
#1 Either we drop right through the lows blamo.
#2 We don't even get to test the lows by instead bounce before them.
Last week I choose to stay 80% in cash and picked up some clown long calls. The risk was too great imo to be aggressive on the short side, but a few calls seemed prudent. If the market had simply gone through the lows, then I would be holding some dead clown calls but would be buying if the breach were deep enough.
Then, given #2, the bounce before the lows option, I felt we faced again one of 2 surprises:
1) That the rally dies VERY quickly (as in tomorrow we start to head to new lows).
2) That it goes longer and further than most will accept, causing bulls to get too confident and the bears to doubt that we'll turn down again. In other words, that we will once more see a local bearish divergence in sentiment.
This is all pretty obvious I know.
Anyway, given all this, the only strategy I could come up with was as outlines in the down day yesterday:
Message 17438111
(How's the weather in the Pacific? Just a beautiful, large day here.) |
