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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 296.74

+1.8%

Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (3082)	5/8/2002 7:17:26 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) of 95487

The last "breakout" type rally occurred on 3/1 and ended 6 trading days later on 3/8. During that period, the NASDAQ gained 11 percent and the SOX gained 25 percent. If today was the start of a similar period, the market is off to a good start. Today the NASDAQ was up 7.8 percent and the SOX was up 11.1 percent. I am expecting some further gains here in the next few days, but I have no idea how much. If we say the gains will be the same as last time, 11 and 25 percent, the NASDAQ will go to 1747 and the SOX will go to 588. Those numbers sound like reasonable goals over the next several days given the startup today, but who knows. Tomorrow should give us a much better idea just how much more we might get on this rally. By the time we get to the AMAT earnings report next Tuesday, the rally may be over and the market sells off on the news, even if it is pretty good. We have 4 more trading days until AMAT announces. If this rally is like the last 6 day rally, it will be all over by then. Don

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