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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity

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To: kodiak_bull who wrote (13735)	5/8/2002 10:30:16 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (2) of 23153

Until further notice, we are in rally mode. The ARMS Index is what I'm looking at, and its undefeated record. Tomorrow is day 20 since the ARMS tagged the 1.50 level. As you know, the low is always in by day 20. Looks like we got our low on the Dow on day 17 (Monday). The Dow will just not break down below that 9800 area. We should have a not insubstantial rally as a result. 25-30% on $COMPQ would be the norm ARMS index bounce - of course 7.5% is already on the books. Keep in mind that in February we had a really pathetic bounce of only about 15% bottom to top. I believe that the signal at that time was artificially inflated by the accounting irregularity stocks, they really skewed the market volume and A-D totals. The market condition was not accurately reflected in the ARMS Index at that time. IMO. I am still concerned that we didn't get a power washout with VIX +30 and the MacLellans in their super buy ranges. However, the put-call signals said way oversold, so there was some confirmation that a market direction reversal was on. I Put some tech money to work today. Not a whole lot. Picked up PHTN @ 41.5 and LLTC @ 38.2. Also added to KLAC and CYMI positions. Also re-entered MVK (18.15) in the energy sector. Since I haven't really made any money yet in these, I cannot be accused of being a Monday morning QB. What I would like to see to confirm a rally in the next several trading days would be nervous selling in the first 30 minutes of trading, followed by a reversal as fund/institutions scoop up those shares. This was a daily happening back in the post Sept 11 rise, in Nov/Dec.. JMO - For all I know the NAZ may give up the 120 tomorrow and set new lows. But, investors have to put their faith in something. Can't just blow around in the wind. Warp

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