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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners

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To: 16yearcycle who wrote (11451)	5/9/2002 11:11:30 AM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (1) of 57684

Well.... the way I look at it is this: If the stock is trading below the "typical" valuation that others in the sector are (or were historically), maybe it's a good value and maybe there is a problem with the fundamentals. Vrsn seemed to have such a good valuation that I asked Wizard a couple times what was wrong with it (if it seems to be too good to be true.......). I nearly bought it myself as a "value play" but decided against it due to the chart pattern that it had. I know that the reason symc had such a low p/s had to do with it's spotty execution and it's previous management (Gordon Eubanks... Mr. Befuddled). There are other things that come into valuation and when estimates keep getting cut, I would expect that stocks won't get a premium like they have in past years. I have a feeling that if we didn't see such a total implosion in the fundies of the telecom equipment makers, we'd not have valuations where they are in the software sector... Call me cautious, but I have NO CLUE if software has bottomed out fundamentally (and in fact even ceos do not know for sure either judging by the cc's that I listened to last quarter), and I hate to buy anything without that confirmation having seen what's gone on (tired of getting burned and my fingers chopped off). I know that I'm going to pay more, but I just feel like it's safer to wait. That's probably why the market can get no traction. TA

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