Disciplined Investing, especially the NAIC way Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Disciplined Investing, especially the NAIC way

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To: The Philosopher who wrote (323)	5/9/2002 7:28:04 PM
From: - with a K	Read Replies (2) of 469

It's been a while since I looked at Merck, but FWIW, here are some notes from mid-December, which means they're not worth much now! Out of the drug sector I tend to like the generics anyway. Recently, there was a very revealing front page WSJ story about the struggle and costs to bring a new drug to market featuring PFE's $71 mil investment that didn't pan out. Ouch. I bought generic drug maker PRX after it's fall and believe I posted my notes on this thread. Perhaps I should find some time to look at Merck again. But without looking any further I would agree it's probably oversold. Seems to be the way these days. BTW, I live in Seattle. - Kris Merck PEG: 1.75 or 1.67 TPE: 21.3 FPE: 19.2 in 2002; 14 in 2005 ROE: 46.8% NPM: 15.4% Consensus forecast growth: 8% (2001) and 9% (2002) Company: MRK Date: 11/22/01 Current Price: $65.93 Next year's expected earnings: $3.40 Estimated 7-10 EPS growth rate: 11 P/E maximum if not 8.5: 12 Graham Fair Value: $83.11 Current Price: $65.93 Percent Growth to Fair Value: 26.06% SSG Notes: Barely a buy (below $66; conservative estimates; up/dwn of 3.2/1; EPS growth of 11.8%; ave. high PE of 25)

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