...food for thought ?
It's openly acknowledged that Bin Laden targeted the US Financial Markets on Sept 11th and even specifically gloated about the "Billions of lost $ in Market Cap" that it cost Americans.
The American Economy WAS disruppted and the domestic airline, tourist & travel industry was in great peril.
Since the Fed along with the ESF/PPT uses futures to strategically plug market declines at key technical levels for obvious good reason...I'd imagine that Bin Laden if he chooses to target the US again, would once again target his actions to impact the US Financial Markets with the most bang for the buck...targeting the attacks at sensitive transitional/technical periods in the market.
He completely disrupted last years holiday travel season and the other heavy domestic tourist & travel season kicks off in just a few weeks; that being the summer travel season from Memorial Day to Labor Day.
If we technically retest the Sept 11th Market Lows & it looks like we may on our way to doing just that...It would logically be a critical target opportunity for what nearly every single domestic security & military expert has called a "when and not an if" eventuality...and I'm not sure that we can guage what type of market reaction would be generated if we were hit with another significant domestic terrorist event at a technical retest of the Sept 11th market lows during the peak summer travel season.
I don't know if the Airline Industry would, or could survive another hit during the summer tourist travel & vacation season.
The ripple effect through our economy would be dramatic and I'm not sure if our psyche could handle another hit and bounce back as we just did either.
It amazes me that that people are not rapidly reducing their exposure to stocks, nor applying ANY, let alone severe RISK DISCOUNTS to this market for this very reason.
And fwiw; the smartest thing Saddam could ever do strategically; would be to hit us with a pre-emptive biologic, or chemical attack (making it look like an Al-Quaeda attack )and trigger a domestic crisis amidst this turmoil in the middle east with Israel & Palestine.
There undoubtedly would be a massive domestic political call for America to retreat from the Global War on Terrorism and Bush would be poised for an Economic Rogue Wave Event to cut his Presidency (and any hopes for a re-election, along with ending the cooresponding threat to Saddam) off at the knee's.
Tactically; the only way Saddam survives, or stays in power; is to pre-emptively strike the US with a dramatic terrorist event & to completely spin domestic political opinion on the War on Terrorism and the support of Israel; let alone any thoughts of marching into Baghdad.
I think we're in denial here...and I think US political opinion is about to be fragmented with any further domestic terrorist act of any significance....and we are incredibly arrogant and niave, if we don't realize it truly is as Buffet opined of late; when & not if this occurs...
I do NOT think it's irrational, or thinking too far outside of the box; to think that part of our domestic national security would be for individual US Citizens to not be exposed to what by any & all historic market metric's - is a near "fully invested/exposed" level in the US equity markets at STILL mania-esque historic valuation levels.
Bonds, Cash, Gold & Silver will survive another domestic terrorist hit of significance; but our equity markets will not... and the individual investor, given his degree of exposure to equities and given the valuation levels still present; is literally setting himself up to send much, too much, hard earned savings to Ali-Babba Money Heaven... and "money heaven" is where it all will go and once it goes to "money heaven"... it never comes back...
It's prudent and it literally should & could be part of our Homeland Security to dramatically reduce our exposure to the equity markets here; especially at these valuation levels... sadly, there is not, nor will there ever be a National Voice to express this philosophy as part of our domestic security.
Let the "Baby Boomers" have what's left of their 401K's halved yet again here as they enter that generational wave of retirement... and try to fathom what effect that will have for decades on the US Economy...
It's reckless both politically and economically, to stay so heavilly exposed to the US Equity markets at these valuation levels imho... and remember what the Institutions did to the individual investor after days of telling them it would be unpatriotic to sell, let alone short the US Market post 9/11...
Protect thyself and let the Institutions walk their own talk for what inevitably looks to be...a when & not if...part deux. |
