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Pastimes : Thoroughbred Horse Racing
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To: Nemer who wrote (242)5/10/2002 12:05:52 PM
From: Freedom Fighter  Read Replies (1) of 1269
 
My feeling is that last time:

1 They underrated his chances of getting a comfortable lead or rating and winning.

2 They underrated his chances of firing another really big shot like he did in the Illinois Derby. There' so much talk about bouncing and reverting to the mean these days, they forget that these are lightly raced 3yo colts in spring that sometimes get real good in a hurry and stay that way.

My feeling is this time they will

1 Underrate his chances of getting another reasonable lead or rating and winning

2 Overrate his chances of firing a 3rd big shot in a row. Now that he's done it twice, everyone will assume he's this good on a sustainable basis. However, IMO he is not as certain to fire as big a shot for the 3rd straight time as a horse that has been running at its usual level more consistently. Some 3yos go two and out.
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