Gottfried, following is the DW data for the close of
Tuesday. According to DW all the leading indicators have
reversed down. IMO, does not look good in the short term.
Check oversold sectors: biogenetic at 19%, internet at 22,
telecom at 24, soft at 24, semi at 28, comp at 35, and drugs
at 35%. DW advised investors not to buy sectors over the
50% (mean). I always consider the upside gain verse the
down risk to provide some safeguards. Just think of those
buying drugs not to long ago at their highs. Just my
opinions.
From Dorsey Wright, (www.dorseywright.com) "As you know, we
have several short term market indicators -- the High-Low
Indexes, the Percent of Stocks Above Their 10 Week MA, and
the Option Stock Bullish Percent. Over the past few weeks we
have seen deterioration in these short term indicators.
Specifically, the NYSE High-Low Index and the OTC High-Low
Index have both reversed down from lofty, overbought levels;
as well, both the NYSE and OTC Percent of Stocks Above Their
Ten Week Moving Averages are on sell signals. In addition,
the Option Stock Bullish Percent reversed down into a column
of O's last week, which was yet another negative for the
market on a shorter term basis. This basically puts all of
our short term market indicators on sell signals, suggesting
a defensive slant at least in the short term. But the
negative short term picture is starting to spill over to the
longer term indicators, as evidenced by the OTC Bullish
Percent. The BPOTC was on the verge of reversing down into a
column of O's through Monday's ac tivity, coming in at
48.42%; a move to 48% is needed to do this. In looking at
today's action, it looks as if there will be enough net new
sell signals in the OTC market to cause this reversal down.
This would further suggest a defensive posture with respect
to the OTC, as we will have "lost possession of the
football". This impending change in the OTC Bullish Percent,
therefore, would leave only the NYSE Bullish Percent in a
"offensive" condition with respect to our market indicators.
As you know, it too remains overbought at fairly lofty
levels. The NYSE BP has started to downtick after reaching a
high of 68%. Its current reading, through Monday, was 65.4%,
with a move to 62% needed to reverse it into O's, and to
defense."
Paul
From my spreadsheet of DW data.
Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes
3/26/02 4/2/02 4/9/02 4/16/02 4/23/02 4/30/02 5/7/02
10week 68 10week 69 10week 69 10week 74 10week 67 10week 63 10week 60
30nyse 74 30nyse 73 30nyse 73 30nyse 76 30nyse 75 30nyse 65 30nyse 76
30OTC 60 30OTC 60 30OTC 60 30OTC 60 30OTC 59 30OTC 55 30OTC 51
bpaero 82 bpaero 82 bpaero 82 bpaero 82 bpaero 82 bpaero 73 bpaero 70
bpauto 82 bpauto 82 bpauto 82 bpauto 82 bpauto 82 bpauto 79 bpauto 79
bpbank 84 bpbank 84 bpbank 86 bpbank 86 bpbank 86 bpbank 88 bpbank 89
bpbiom 44 bpbiom 44 bpbiom 34 bpbiom 34 bpbiom 34 bpbiom 22 bpbiom 19
bpbuil 72 bpbuil 72 bpbuil 72 bpbuil 80 bpbuil 82 bpbuil 81 bpbuil 81
bpbusi 66 bpbusi 68 bpbusi 68 bpbusi 68 bpbusi 68 bpbusi 65 bpbusi 66
bpchem 76 bpchem 76 bpchem 76 bpchem 78 bpchem 78 bpchem 75 bpchem 75
BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 37 BPCOMP 35
bpdrug 54 bpdrug 54 bpdrug 48 bpdrug 48 bpdrug 46 bpdrug 38 bpdrug 35
bpelec 50 bpelec 52 bpelec 52 bpelec 52 bpelec 52 bpelec 42 bpelec 41
bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro
bpeuti 60 bpeuti 60 bpeuti 62 bpeuti 62 bpeuti 64 bpeuti 63 bpeuti 64
bpfina 66 bpfina 66 bpfina 66 bpfina 70 bpfina 70 bpfina 62 bpfina 64
bpfood 68 bpfood 70 bpfood 70 bpfood 74 bpfood 74 bpfood 73 bpfood 73
bpfore 70 bpfore 70 bpfore 70 bpfore 74 bpfore 74 bpfore 74 bpfore 74
bpgame 72 bpgame 64 bpgame 56 bpgame 56 bpgame 56 bpgame 63 bpgame 64
bpguti 64 bpguti 68 bpguti 68 bpguti 68 bpguti 70 bpguti 66 bpguti 65
bpheal 52 bpheal 52 bpheal 54 bpheal 54 bpheal 56 bpheal 50 bpheal 50
bphous 76 bphous 76 bphous 76 bphous 76 bphous 76 bphous 75 bphous 76
bpinet 36 bpinet 36 bpinet 36 bpinet 36 bpinet 30 bpinet 25 bpinet 22
bpinsu 72 bpinsu 74 bpinsu 78 bpinsu 82 bpinsu 82 bpinsu 80 bpinsu 82
bplati 52 bplati 52 bplati 54 bplati 54 bplati 54 bplati 51 bplati 52
bpleis 68 bpleis 68 bpleis 68 bpleis 68 bpleis 68 bpleis 61 bpleis 60
bpmach 68 bpmach 70 bpmach 70 bpmach 70 bpmach 70 bpmach 63 bpmach 64
bpmedi 60 bpmedi 60 bpmedi 60 bpmedi 60 bpmedi 60 bpmedi 49 bpmedi 48
bpmeta 66 bpmeta 68 bpmeta 70 bpmeta 74 bpmeta 74 bpmeta 71 bpmeta 74
bpnyse 66 bpnyse 67 bpnyse 67 bpnyse 68 bpnyse 68 bpnyse 65 bpnyse 65
bpoil 64 bpoil 70 bpoil 70 bpoil 70 bpoil 70 bpoil 69 bpoil 70
bpoils 78 bpoils 78 bpoils 78 bpoils 70 bpoils 70 bpoils 73 bpoils 71
bpopti 62 bpopti 62 bpopti 60 bpopti 62 bpopti 61 bpopti 54 bpopti 54
bpotc 54 bpotc 54 bpotc 51 bpotc 54 bpotc 54 bpotc 50 bpotc 48
bpprec 74 bpprec 78 bpprec 72 bpprec 72 bpprec 72 bpprec 75 bpprec 72
bpprot 56 bpprot 56 bpprot 56 bpprot 56 bpprot 56 bpprot 50 bpprot 53
bpreal 78 bpreal 78 bpreal 80 bpreal 82 bpreal 82 bpreal 82 bpreal 82
bprest 76 bprest 76 bprest 76 bprest 78 bprest 82 bprest 82 bprest 82
bpreta 72 bpreta 72 bpreta 72 bpreta 72 bpreta 76 bpreta 78 bpreta 78
bpsavi 82 bpsavi 82 bpsavi 82 bpsavi 86 bpsavi 88 bpsavi 90 bpsavi 92
BPSEMI 60 BPSEMI 60 BPSEMI 48 BPSEMI 46 BPSEMI 54 BPSEMI 40 BPSEMI 28
bpsoft 46 bpsoft 46 bpsoft 38 bpsoft 38 bpsoft 38 bpsoft 30 bpsoft 27
bpstee 74 bpstee 76 bpstee 80 bpstee 80 bpstee 80 bpstee 75 bpstee 71
BPTELE 32 BPTELE 32 BPTELE 32 BPTELE 32 BPTELE 32 BPTELE 27 BPTELE 24
bptext 76 bptext 80 bptext 80 bptext 82 bptext 82 bptext 81 bptext 82
bptran 74 bptran 74 bptran 74 bptran 76 bptran 70 bptran 66 bptran 68
bpwall 64 bpwall 64 bpwall 64 bpwall 56 bpwall 50 bpwall 44 bpwall 45
bpwast 52 bpwast 52 bpwast 52 bpwast 52 bpwast 52 bpwast 56 bpwast 55
HLnyse 80 HLnyse 76 HLnyse 77 HLnyse 82 HLnyse 90 HLnyse 86 HLnyse 79
HLotc 86 HLotc 83 HLotc 75 HLotc 76 HLotc 82 HLotc 70 HLotc 60
twotc 56 twotc 56 twotc 52 twotc 61 twotc 56 twotc 50 twotc 43
Changes Changes Changes Changes twotc 56 Changes Changes
3/26/02 4/2/02 4/9/02 4/16/02 4/23/02 4/30/02 5/07/02
bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro bpeuro
HLotc 86 bpbank 84 bpbank 86 bpsavi 86 HLnyse 90 bpsavi 90 bpsavi 92
bpbank 84 HLotc 83 bpsavi 82 bpbank 86 bpsavi 88 bpbank 88 bpbank 89
bpsavi 82 bpsavi 82 bpauto 82 HLnyse 82 bpbank 86 HLnyse 86 bptext 82
bpauto 82 bpauto 82 bpaero 82 bptext 82 HLotc 82 bprest 82 bprest 82
bpaero 82 bpaero 82 bptext 80 bpreal 82 bptext 82 bpreal 82 bpreal 82
HLnyse 80 bptext 80 bpstee 80 bpinsu 82 bprest 82 bptext 81 bpinsu 82
bpreal 78 bpreal 78 bpreal 80 bpauto 82 bpreal 82 bpbuil 81 bpbuil 81
bpoils 78 bpprec 78 bpoils 78 bpaero 82 bpinsu 82 bpinsu 80 HLnyse 79
bptext 76 bpoils 78 bpinsu 78 bpstee 80 bpbuil 82 bpauto 79 bpauto 79
bprest 76 HLnyse 76 HLnyse 77 bpbuil 80 bpauto 82 bpreta 78 bpreta 78
bphous 76 bpstee 76 bprest 76 bprest 78 bpaero 82 bpstee 75 bphous 76
bpchem 76 bprest 76 bphous 76 bpchem 78 bpstee 80 bpprec 75 30nyse 76
bptran 74 bphous 76 bpchem 76 HLotc 76 bpchem 78 bphous 75 bpchem 75
bpstee 74 bpchem 76 HLotc 75 bptran 76 bpreta 76 bpchem 75 bpmeta 74
bpprec 74 bptran 74 bptran 74 bphous 76 bphous 76 bpfore 74 bpfore 74
30nyse 74 bpinsu 74 30nyse 73 30nyse 76 30nyse 75 bpoils 73 bpfood 73
bpreta 72 30nyse 73 bpreta 72 bpmeta 74 bpmeta 74 bpfood 73 bpprec 72
bpinsu 72 bpreta 72 bpprec 72 bpfore 74 bpfore 74 bpaero 73 bpstee 71
bpgame 72 bpbuil 72 bpbuil 72 bpfood 74 bpfood 74 bpmeta 71 bpoils 71
bpbuil 72 bpoil 70 bpoil 70 10week 74 bpprec 72 HLotc 70 bpoil 70
bpfore 70 bpmach 70 bpmeta 70 bpreta 72 bptran 70 bpoil 69 bpaero 70
bpmach 68 bpfore 70 bpmach 70 bpprec 72 bpoils 70 bptran 66 bptran 68
bpleis 68 bpfood 70 bpfore 70 bpoils 70 bpoil 70 bpguti 66 bpbusi 66
bpfood 68 10week 69 bpfood 70 bpoil 70 bpmach 70 bpnyse 65 bpnyse 65
10week 68 bpmeta 68 10week 69 bpmach 70 bpguti 70 bpbusi 65 bpguti 65
bpnyse 66 bpleis 68 bpleis 68 bpfina 70 bpfina 70 30nyse 65 bpmach 64
bpmeta 66 bpguti 68 bpguti 68 bpnyse 68 bpnyse 68 bpmach 63 bpgame 64
bpfina 66 bpbusi 68 bpbusi 68 bpleis 68 bpleis 68 bpgame 63 bpfina 64
bpbusi 66 bpnyse 67 bpnyse 67 bpguti 68 bpbusi 68 bpeuti 63 bpeuti 64
bpwall 64 bpfina 66 bpfina 66 bpbusi 68 10week 67 10week 63 HLotc 60
bpoil 64 bpwall 64 bpwall 64 bpopti 62 bpeuti 64 bpfina 62 bpleis 60
bpguti 64 bpgame 64 bpeuti 62 bpeuti 62 bpopti 61 bpleis 61 10week 60
bpopti 62 bpopti 62 bpopti 60 twotc 61 bpmedi 60 bpwast 56 bpwast 55
BPSEMI 60 BPSEMI 60 bpmedi 60 bpmedi 60 30OTC 59 30OTC 55 bpopti 54
bpmedi 60 bpmedi 60 30OTC 60 30OTC 60 twotc 56 bpopti 54 bpprot 53
bpeuti 60 bpeuti 60 bpprot 56 bpwall 56 bpprot 56 bplati 51 bplati 52
30OTC 60 30OTC 60 bpgame 56 bpprot 56 bpheal 56 twotc 50 30OTC 51
twotc 56 twotc 56 bplati 54 bpgame 56 bpgame 56 bpprot 50 bpheal 50
bpprot 56 bpprot 56 bpheal 54 bpotc 54 BPSEMI 54 bpheal 50 bpotc 48
bpotc 54 bpotc 54 twotc 52 bplati 54 bpotc 54 bpotc 50 bpmedi 48
bpdrug 54 bpdrug 54 bpwast 52 bpheal 54 bplati 54 bpmedi 49 bpwall 45
bpwast 52 bpwast 52 bpelec 52 bpwast 52 bpwast 52 bpwall 44 twotc 43
bplati 52 bplati 52 bpotc 51 bpelec 52 bpelec 52 bpelec 42 bpelec 41
bpheal 52 bpheal 52 BPSEMI 48 bpdrug 48 bpwall 50 BPSEMI 40 bpdrug 35
bpelec 50 bpelec 52 bpdrug 48 BPSEMI 46 bpdrug 46 bpdrug 38 BPCOMP 35
bpsoft 46 bpsoft 46 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 37 BPSEMI 28
BPCOMP 44 BPCOMP 44 bpsoft 38 bpsoft 38 bpsoft 38 bpsoft 30 bpsoft 27
bpbiom 44 bpbiom 44 bpinet 36 bpinet 36 bpbiom 34 BPTELE 27 BPTELE 24
bpinet 36 bpinet 36 bpbiom 34 bpbiom 34 BPTELE 32 bpinet 25 bpinet 22
BPTELE 32 BPTELE 32 BPTELE 32 BPTELE 32 bpinet 30 bpbiom 22 bpbiom 19
BPALL SECV64 BPALL SECV65.4 BPALL SECV64.1 BPALL SECV65 BPALL SECV64 BPALL SECV64 BPALL SECV61.4
bonds 100.97 |
