Looked at a bunch of charts this afternoon, and it appears we may stop and bounce at one of two places - the bottom of the gap on the COMP/NDX/SPX or a re-test of the Tuesday lows.
Price by volume indicates the bottom of the gap from the EOD on the 60-minute is the more likely point for a bounce. I don't expect the drop to continue much longer than Monday AM, but anything is possible. That means 1160 NDX and 1150 SPX, COMP 1573 is what I'm on the lookout for.
Looking at possible re-trace targets, the most obvious one is the top of the gap at 1625 COMP. That would be a .382 re-trace of the drop and work as a C-wave if you're doing e-wave. 1640 is another possibility, as is 1656 for a double top.
That's what I'm looking at right now. Look at this monthly SOXX chart:
stockcharts.com[h,a]maclyyay[pc20!c50!c200!d20,2!i!c13][vc60][iUi14,3!La12,26,9!Lg!Lp14,3,3!Lb14!Ll14]&pref=G
Draw some lines and you'll see a a triangle formed by rising support at around SOXX 400 and falling resistance at around 525 or so. That triangle is converging, and when it breaks to the downside (probably this fall) there is support at the Sept. lows at 340 and then at 275 and 250, with price and rising support at those levels.
I think 250 is where it will ultimately be the neighborhood where the SOXX low could be next year sometime. |
